Fourth National Climate Assessment

USGCRP

Key Message 1
Freshwater

Freshwater is critical to life throughout the Caribbean. Increasing global carbon emissions are projected to reduce average rainfall in this region by the end of the century, constraining freshwater availability, while extreme rainfall events, which can increase freshwater flooding impacts, are expected to increase in intensity. Saltwater intrusion associated with sea level rise will reduce the quantity and quality of freshwater in coastal aquifers. Increasing variability in rainfall events and increasing temperatures will likely alter the distribution of ecological life zones and exacerbate existing problems in water management, planning, and infrastructure capacity.

Key Message 2
Marine Resources

Marine ecological systems provide key ecosystem services such as commercial and recreational fisheries and coastal protection. These systems are threatened by changes in ocean surface temperature, ocean acidification, sea level rise, and changes in the frequency and intensity of storm events. Degradation of coral and other marine habitats can result in changes in the distribution of species that use these habitats and the loss of live coral cover, sponges, and other key species. These changes will likely disrupt valuable ecosystem services, producing subsequent effects on Caribbean island economies.

Key Message 3
Coastal Systems

Coasts are a central feature of Caribbean island communities. Coastal zones dominate island economies and are home to critical infrastructure, public and private property, cultural heritage, and natural ecological systems. Sea level rise, combined with stronger wave action and higher storm surges, will worsen coastal flooding and increase coastal erosion, likely leading to diminished beach area, loss of storm surge barriers, decreased tourism, and negative effects on livelihoods and well-being. Adaptive planning and nature-based strategies, combined with active community participation and traditional knowledge, are beginning to be deployed to reduce the risks of a changing climate.

Key Message 4
Rising Temperatures

Natural and social systems adapt to the temperatures under which they evolve and operate. Changes to average and extreme temperatures have direct and indirect effects on organisms and strong interactions with hydrological cycles, resulting in a variety of impacts. Continued increases in average temperatures will likely lead to decreases in agricultural productivity, changes in habitats and wildlife distributions, and risks to human health, especially in vulnerable populations. As maximum and minimum temperatures increase, there are likely to be fewer cool nights and more frequent hot days, which will likely affect the quality of life in the U.S. Caribbean.

Key Message 5
Disaster Risk Response to Extreme Events

Extreme events pose significant risks to life, property, and economy in the Caribbean, and some extreme events, such as flooding and droughts, are projected to increase in frequency and intensity. Increasing hurricane intensity and associated rainfall rates will likely affect human health and well-being, economic development, conservation, and agricultural productivity. Increased resilience will depend on collaboration and integrated planning, preparation, and responses across the region.

Key Message 6
Increasing Adaptive Capacity Through Regional Collaboration

Shared knowledge, collaborative research and monitoring, and sustainable institutional adaptive capacity can help support and speed up disaster recovery, reduce loss of life, enhance food security, and improve economic opportunity in the U.S. Caribbean. Increased regional cooperation and stronger partnerships in the Caribbean can expand the region’s collective ability to achieve effective actions that build climate change resilience, reduce vulnerability to extreme events, and assist in recovery efforts.

Virtually Certain	Extremely Likely	Very Likely	Likely	About as Likely as Not	Unlikely	Very Unikely	Extremely Unlikely	Exceptionally Unlikely
99%–100%	95%–100%	90%–100%	66%-100%	33%-66%	0%-33%	0%-10%	0%-5%	0%-1%

Confidence Level

Very High	High	Medium	Low
Strong evidence (established theory, multiple sources, consistent results, well documented and accepted methods, etc.), high consensus	Moderate evidence (several sources, some consistency, methods vary and/or documentation limited, etc.), medium consensus	Suggestive evidence (a few sources, limited consistency, models incomplete, methods emerging, etc.), competing schools of thought	Inconclusive evidence (limited sources, extrapolations, inconsistent findings, poor documentation and/or methods not tested, etc.), disagreement or lack of opinions among experts

Documenting Uncertainty: This assessment relies on two metrics to communicate the degree of certainty in Key Findings. See Guide to this Report for more on assessments of likelihood and confidence.

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY:
Chapter 20: U.S. Caribbean

Historically, the U.S. Caribbean region has experienced relatively stable seasonal rainfall patterns, moderate annual temperature fluctuations, and a variety of extreme weather events, such as tropical storms, hurricanes, and drought. However, the Caribbean climate is changing and is projected to be increasingly variable as levels of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere increase.

The high percentage of coastal area relative to the total island land area in the U.S. Caribbean means that a large proportion of the region’s people, infrastructure, and economic activity are vulnerable to sea level rise, more frequent intense rainfall events and associated coastal flooding, and saltwater intrusion. High levels of exposure and sensitivity to risk in the U.S. Caribbean region are compounded by a low level of adaptive capacity, due in part to the high costs of mitigation and adaptation measures relative to the region’s gross domestic product, particularly when compared to continental U.S. coastal areas.¹ The limited geographic and economic scale of Caribbean islands means that disruptions from extreme climate-related events, such as droughts and hurricanes, can devastate large portions of local economies and cause widespread damage to crops, water supplies, infrastructure, and other critical resources and services.¹

The U.S. Caribbean territories of Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands (USVI) have distinct differences in topography, language, population size, governance, natural and human resources, and economic capacity. However, both are highly dependent on natural and built coastal assets; service-related industries account for more than 60% of the USVI economy. Beaches, affected by sea level rise and erosion, are among the main tourist attractions. In Puerto Rico, critical infrastructure (for example, drinking water pipelines and pump stations, sanitary pipelines and pump stations, wastewater treatment plants, and power plants) is vulnerable to the effects of sea level rise, storm surge, and flooding. In the USVI, infrastructure and historical buildings in the inundation zone for sea level rise include the power plants on both St. Thomas and St. Croix; schools; housing communities; the towns of Charlotte Amalie, Christiansted, and Frederiksted; and pipelines for water and sewage.

Climate change will likely result in water shortages due to an overall decrease in annual rainfall, a reduction in ecosystem services, and increased risks for agriculture, human health, wildlife, and socioeconomic development in the U.S. Caribbean. These shortages would result from some locations within the Caribbean experiencing longer dry seasons and shorter, but wetter, wet seasons in the future.²^,³^,⁴^,⁵^,⁶^,⁷^,⁸ Extended dry seasons are projected to increase fire likelihood.⁹^,¹⁰ Excessive rainfall, coupled with poor construction practices, unpaved roads, and steep slopes, can exacerbate erosion rates and have adverse effects on reservoir capacity, water quality, and nearshore marine habitats.

Ocean warming poses a significant threat to the survival of corals and will likely also cause shifts in associated habitats that compose the coral reef ecosystem. Severe, repeated, or prolonged periods of high temperatures leading to extended coral bleaching can result in colony death. Ocean acidification also is likely to diminish the structural integrity of coral habitats. Studies show that major shifts in fisheries distribution and changes to the structure and composition of marine habitats adversely affect food security, shoreline protection, and economies throughout the Caribbean.

In Puerto Rico, the annual number of days with temperatures above 90°F has increased over the last four and a half decades. During that period, stroke and cardiovascular disease, which are influenced by such elevated temperatures, became the primary causes of death.¹¹^,¹² Increases in average temperature and in extreme heat events will likely have detrimental effects on agricultural operations throughout the U.S. Caribbean region.¹³^,¹⁴ Many farmers in the tropics, including the U.S. Caribbean, are considered small-holding, limited resource farmers and often lack the resources and/or capital to adapt to changing conditions.¹⁵

Most Caribbean countries and territories share the need to assess risks, enable actions across scales, and assess changes in ecosystems to inform decision-making on habitat protection under a changing climate.¹⁶^,¹⁷ U.S. Caribbean islands have the potential to improve adaptation and mitigation actions by fostering stronger collaborations with Caribbean initiatives on climate change and disaster risk reduction.

Observed and Projected Sea Level Rise

(top) Observed sea level rise trends in Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands reflect an increase in sea level of about 0.08 inches (2.0 mm) per year for the period 1962–2017 for Puerto Rico and for 1975–2017 for the U.S. Virgin Islands. The bottom panels show a closer look at more recent trends from 2000 to 2017 that measure a rise in sea level of about 0.24 inches (6.0 mm) per year. Projections of sea level rise are shown under three different scenarios of Intermediate-Low (1–2 feet), Intermediate (3–4 feet), and Extreme (9–11 feet) sea level rise. The scenarios depict the range of future sea level rise based on factors such as global greenhouse gas emissions and the loss of glaciers and ice sheets. From Figure 20.6. (Sources: NOAA NCEI and CICS-NC).

Climate Risk Management Organizations

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Some of the organizations working on climate risk assessment and management in the Caribbean are shown. Joint regional efforts to address climate challenges include the implementation of adaptation measures to reduce natural, social, and economic vulnerabilities, as well as actions to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. From Figure 20.18 (Sources: NOAA and the USDA Caribbean Climate Hub).

Federal Coordinating Lead Author:: William A. Gould, USDA Forest Service International Institute of Tropical Forestry
Chapter Lead:: Ernesto L. Diaz, Department of Natural and Environmental Resources, Coastal Zone Management Program
Chapter Authors:: Nora L. Álvarez-Berríos, USDA Forest Service International Institute of Tropical Forestry; Felix Aponte-González, Aponte, Aponte & Asociados; Wayne Archibald, Archibald Energy Group; Jared Heath Bowden, Department of Applied Ecology, North Carolina State University; Lisamarie Carrubba, NOAA Fisheries, Office of Protected Resources; Wanda Crespo, Estudios Técnicos; Stephen Joshua Fain, USDA Forest Service International Institute of Tropical Forestry; Grizelle González, USDA Forest Service International Institute of Tropical Forestry; Annmarie Goulbourne, Environmental Solutions Limited; Eric Harmsen, Department of Agricultural and Biosystems Engineering, University of Puerto Rico; Azad Henareh Khalyani, Natural Resource Ecology Laboratory, Colorado State University; Eva Holupchinski, USDA Forest Service International Institute of Tropical Forestry; James P. Kossin, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration; Amanda J. Leinberger, Center for Climate Adaptation Science and Solutions, University of Arizona; Vanessa I. Marrero-Santiago, Department of Natural and Environmental Resources, Coastal Zone Management Program; Odalys Martínez-Sánchez, NOAA National Weather Service; Kathleen McGinley, USDA Forest Service International Institute of Tropical Forestry; Melissa Meléndez Oyola, University of New Hampshire; Pablo Méndez-Lázaro, University of Puerto Rico; Julio Morrell, University of Puerto Rico; Isabel K. Parés-Ramos, USDA Forest Service International Institute of Tropical Forestry; Roger Pulwarty, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration; William V. Sweet, NOAA National Ocean Service; Adam Terando, U.S. Geological Survey, Southeast Climate Adaptation Science Center; Sigfredo Torres-González, U.S. Geological Survey (Retired)
Review Editor:: Jess K. Zimmerman, University of Puerto Rico

Technical Contributors:: Mariano Argüelles, Puerto Rico Department of Agriculture; Gabriela Bernal-Vega, University of Puerto Rico; Roberto Moyano, Estudios Técnicos Inc.; Pedro Nieves, USVI Coastal Zone Management; Aurelio Mercado-Irizarry, University of Puerto Rico; Dominique Davíd-Chavez, Colorado State University; Rey Rodríguez, Puerto Rico Department of Agriculture
USGCRP Coordinators:: Allyza Lustig, Program Coordinator; Apurva Dave, International Coordinator and Senior Analyst; Christopher W. Avery, Senior Manager

<b>Gould, W.A., E.L. Díaz, (co-leads),</b> N.L. Álvarez-Berríos, F. Aponte-González, W. Archibald, J.H. Bowden, L. Carrubba, W. Crespo, S.J. Fain, G. González, A. Goulbourne, E. Harmsen, E. Holupchinski, A.H. Khalyani, J. Kossin, A.J. Leinberger, V.I. Marrero-Santiago, O. Martínez-Sánchez, K. McGinley, P. Méndez-Lázaro, J. Morell, M.M. Oyola, I.K. Parés-Ramos, R. Pulwarty, W.V. Sweet, A. Terando, and S. Torres-González, 2018: U.S. Caribbean. In <i>Impacts, Risks, and Adaptation in the United States: Fourth National Climate Assessment, Volume II</i> [Reidmiller, D.R., C.W. Avery, D.R. Easterling, K.E. Kunkel, K.L.M. Lewis, T.K. Maycock, and B.C. Stewart (eds.)]. U.S. Global Change Research Program, Washington, DC, USA, pp. 809–871. doi: 10.7930/NCA4.2018.CH20

Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands (USVI) are rich in biodiversity, cultural heritage, and natural resources. More than 3.5 million inhabitants depend on the region’s natural resources and environmental services for their well-being, livelihoods, local economies, and cultural identities. Changing climate and weather patterns interacting with human activities, are affecting land use, air quality, and resource management and are posing growing risks to food security, the economy, culture, and ecosystems services.

Shared Vulnerabilities of U.S. Caribbean and Pacific Islands

The U.S. Caribbean islands face many of the same climate change related challenges as Hawai‘i and the U.S.-Affiliated Pacific Islands (Ch. 27: Hawai‘i & Pacific Islands), including

isolation and dependence on imports, making islands more vulnerable to climate-related impacts;
critical dependence on local sources of freshwater (Ch. 27, KM 1);
temperature increases that will further reduce supply and increase demand on freshwater (Ch. 27, KM 1);
vulnerability to drought in ways that differ from mainland regions (Ch. 27, KM 1);
a projected significant decrease in rainfall in all (Caribbean) or parts (Hawai‘i and Pacific Islands) of these regions (Ch. 27, KM 1);
sea level rise, coastal erosion, and increasing storm impacts that threaten lives, critical infrastructure, and livelihoods on islands (Ch. 27, KM 2–4);
prominent concerns about the economic consequences of coastal threats (Ch. 27, KM 3);
coral bleaching and mortality due to warming ocean surface waters and ocean acidification (Ch. 27, KM 4); and
threats to critical economic marine resources, including fisheries (Ch. 27, KM 4).

Figure 20.1: U.S. Caribbean Region

Figure 20.1: The U.S. Caribbean includes the Commonwealth of Puerto Rico and the territory of the U.S. Virgin Islands. The region includes seven inhabited islands and nearly 800 smaller islands and cays.

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The U.S. Caribbean (Figure 20.1) includes the inhabited commonwealth islands of Puerto Rico, Vieques, and Culebra (with a combined population of 3.4 million), along with the inhabited territorial islands of St. Croix, St. Thomas, St. John, and Water Island (with a combined population of 104,000). In addition to the principal islands, the U.S. Caribbean includes over 800 smaller islands and cays, diverse cultural and historical resources, and a rich matrix of marine and terrestrial ecosystems. The region’s physical geography includes nearshore and open ocean marine areas; coastal wetlands, hills, and plains; limestone (or karst) hills; and interior mountains. Average rainfall amounts vary widely across the region, and social and ecological systems are diverse. Puerto Rico and the USVI share many vulnerabilities with coastal states and the Pacific Islands but lack much of the capacity available to the continental United States.

The islands also have unique issues related to data availability and the capacity to develop datasets comparable to those available for the continental United States. For example, the small size of the islands, particularly the USVI, affects the availability and accuracy of downscaled climate data and projections, similar to the Pacific Islands (Ch. 27: Hawai‘i & Pacific Islands). Additionally, differences in the natural and social systems, and in information availability for Puerto Rico and the USVI, affect the degree of vulnerability to climate change and extreme climate events. This is reflected in different needs, priorities, and approaches to reducing vulnerability between Puerto Rico and the USVI. Historically, the U.S. Caribbean region has experienced relatively stable seasonal rainfall patterns, moderate annual temperature fluctuations, and a variety of extreme weather events, such as tropical storms, hurricanes, and drought. However, these patterns are changing and are projected to be increasingly variable as atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations increase. Having evolved with these historic climate conditions, and given the small size and relatively isolated nature of these islands, Caribbean social, economic, and ecological systems are likely to be more sensitive to changes in temperature and precipitation than similar systems in the mainland United States (Figure 20.2).¹⁸^,¹⁹

The vulnerability of the U.S. Caribbean region is influenced by global, regional, and local factors. The region is sensitive to large-scale patterns of natural variability in both the Atlantic and Pacific tropical basins, such as the El Niño–Southern Oscillation and the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation.²⁰ Climate variations due to these large-scale patterns directly impact the U.S. Caribbean because the islands largely rely on surface waters and consistent annual rainfall to meet freshwater demands. The high percentage of coastal areas relative to the total island land area means that a large proportion of the region’s people, infrastructure, and economic activity are vulnerable to sea level rise, more frequent intense rainfall events and associated coastal flooding, and saltwater intrusion. As on islands worldwide, there are strong socioeconomic and cultural ties to diminishing marine resources and services, as well as economic dependence on tourism and imported goods.¹^,¹³^,¹⁴^,²¹ High levels of exposure and sensitivity to risk in the region are compounded by a low level of adaptive capacity, due in part to the high costs of mitigation and adaptation measures relative to the region’s gross domestic product, particularly when compared to continental U.S. coastal areas.¹

The people of the U.S. Caribbean rely heavily on imported food and other goods and services, leaving them critically exposed to climate-related disruptions in transportation systems as well as vulnerabilities associated with source geographies.²² Crop species key to regional economies and food security—such as coffee, plantains, and mangoes—have evolved in narrower climatic niches relative to temperate crops and are often detrimentally affected by relatively small shifts in temperature, humidity, and rainfall.¹³^,²³^,²⁴ The limited geographic and economic scale of Caribbean islands means that disruptions from extreme climate-related events, such as droughts and hurricanes, can devastate large portions of local economies and cause widespread damage to crops, water supplies, infrastructure, and other critical resources and services.¹^,²⁵

Figure 20.2: Climate Indicators and Impacts

Two diagrams show indicators for monitoring climate variability and change in the U.S. Caribbean and the environmental and social impacts resulting from these climate changes. Both diagrams depict a coastal landscape with ocean, a coastal community along the shoreline, and mountains, sky, and seabirds in the background. The top diagram is labeled with a number of key indicators of climate change in the U.S. Caribbean, such as increasing sea surface temperatures, increasing sea level, and increasing ocean acidification; stronger and more frequent extreme weather events; and changes in wildlife habitats and species distribution. The bottom diagram includes labels of the climate impacts, such as degradation of coral and marine habitats, saltwater intrusion, and economic challenges and decreased tourism appeal.

Figure 20.2: (top) Key indicators for monitoring climate variability and change in the U.S. Caribbean include sea level rise, ocean temperature and acidity, air temperature, rainfall patterns, frequency of extreme events, and changes in wildlife habitats. (bottom) Changes in these climate indicators result in environmental and social impacts to natural ecosystems, infrastructure, and society, including degradation of coral and marine habitats, increased coastal flooding and erosion, decrease in agricultural productivity, water supply shortages, negative effects on communities’ livelihoods and on human health, as well as economic challenges and decreased tourism appeal. Source: Puerto Rico Department of Natural and Environmental Resources.

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Observed and Projected Climate Change

The Climate Science Special Report (CSSR)²⁶ provides an in-depth assessment of observed and projected climate change in the continental United States. Because this level of assessment was not available for the U.S. Caribbean region, this section provides a brief overview of observed trends and future projections of five climate variables that are relevant to assessing climate change risk in the region: temperature, precipitation, sea surface temperature, ocean acidification, and sea level rise.

Figure 20.3: Observed and Projected Temperature Change for Puerto Rico

A line graph shows observed temperature changes (in degrees Fahrenheit) for Puerto Rico from 1950 to 2017 and projected temperature changes for 2006 to 2100 under the lower RCP4.5 and the higher RCP8.5 scenarios as compared to the 1951 to 1980 average. A shaded area overlaid on the observed temperature change line represents the model simulations for the historical period and shows that observations fell within the modeled range. While observed temperature changes in Puerto Rico from 1950 to 2017 varied from 1 degree cooler to nearly 2 degrees warmer than average, a warming trend is evident. Under the lower scenario, projected warming ranges from small increases above the early-twenty-first-century conditions up to about 4 degrees above average. Under the higher scenario, temperatures are projected to be about 2 to 4 degrees above average by mid-century and about 4 to 9 degrees above average by 2100.

Figure 20.3: Observed and projected temperature changes are shown as compared to the 1951–1980 average. Observed data are for 1950–2017, and the range of model simulations for the historical period is for 1950–2005. The range of projected temperature changes from global climate models is shown for 2006–2100 under a lower (RCP4.5) and a higher (RCP8.5) scenario (see the Scenario Products section of App. 3). Projections from two regional climate models are shown for 2036–2065, and they align with those from global models for the same period.²⁹^,³⁰ Sources: NOAA NCEI, CICS-NC, and USGS.

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Temperature. Annual average temperatures in the U.S. Caribbean have fluctuated over the last century. However, since 1950, temperatures have increased by about 1.5°F in Puerto Rico.²⁷ Projected increases under both a lower and higher scenario (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) are expected in both average and extreme temperatures, which will lead to more days per year over 95°F and more nights per year over 85°F.²⁸ Global climate models project about a 1.5°F to 4°F increase in average temperatures for the U.S. Caribbean by 2050. End-of-century estimates show temperature increases as high as about 9°F under a higher scenario (RCP8.5; Figure 20.3).⁷

Figure 20.4: Projected Precipitation Change for Puerto Rico

Figure 20.4: This figure shows the projected percent change in annual precipitation over the U.S. Caribbean region for the period 2040–2060 compared to 1985–2005 based on the results of two regional climate model simulations.²⁹^,³⁰ These simulations downscale two global models for the higher scenario (RCP8.5)²⁶ and show that within-island changes are projected to exceed a 10% reduction in annual rainfall. Uncertainty remains as to the location of the largest reductions within the islands. Projections of precipitation change for the U.S. Virgin Islands are particularly uncertain because of model limitations related to resolving these smaller islands. Source: Bowden et al. 2018.³⁰

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Precipitation. Globally, subtropical regions are expected to become drier in the future, especially in regions such as the U.S. Caribbean where oceans have the largest influence on local precipitation patterns.³¹ Climate model results consistently project significant drying in the U.S. Caribbean region by the middle of this century, specifically, a decline of more than 10% in annual precipitation under the higher scenario (RCP8.5; Figure 20.4).⁷^,²⁸^,³⁰^,³² The magnitude of this projected drying, particularly for climate scenarios with the highest amounts of warming, is in general lower in the most recently developed climate models.²⁸ The region is likely to experience more intense rainfall events associated with tropical cyclones;³³ however, uncertainty remains regarding various aspects of extreme rainfall within the region, such as the frequency and duration of extreme rainfall events associated with tropical cyclones.²⁸^,³⁴ For instance, one study³⁴ finds less frequent extreme rainfall events on average in the future at sub-daily and daily timescales, while another²⁸ finds more frequent extreme rainfall events that exceed 3 inches of rain in a day, as well as more intense rainfall associated with tropical cyclones.²⁸^,³³

Figure 20.5: Ocean Chemistry and Temperature

Figure 20.5: This figure represents an annual time series from 1993 to 2016 of atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO₂; black line) , sea surface temperature (red line), and seawater pH (blue line) for the Caribbean region. The Caribbean ocean is subject to changes in surface pH and temperature due to the increase in atmospheric CO₂ concentrations. The oceans have the capacity to not only absorb heat from the air (leading to ocean warming) but also to absorb some of the CO₂ in the atmosphere, causing more acidic (lower pH) oceans. Continued ocean acidification and warming have potentially detrimental consequences for marine life and dependent coastal communities in the Caribbean islands. Source: University of Puerto Rico.

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Sea surface temperature and ocean acidification. Globally, surface ocean waters have warmed by about 1.3°F per century between 1900 and 2016.³⁵ Over the period 1955–2016, the waters of the northeast Caribbean increased in temperature at a rate of 0.23°F per decade,³⁶ and over the last two decades, the sea surface warming rate has reached 0.43°F per decade (Figure 20.5).

Sea level rise. Since the middle of 20th century, relative sea levels have risen by about 0.08 inches (2 mm) per year on average along the coasts of Puerto Rico and the USVI.³⁷^,³⁸ However, rates have been slowly accelerating since the early 2000s and show noticeable acceleration (by a factor of about 3) starting in about 2010–2011. This recent accelerating trend is in agreement with what has been observed along the southeastern U.S. seaboard, and rates of global and regional relative sea level rise are projected to continue to increase substantially this century, largely dependent on the amount of future greenhouse gas emissions. Under the Intermediate-Low, Intermediate, and Extreme scenarios, relative sea levels are projected to rise by about 0.8 feet, 1.2 feet, or 2.8 feet (24 cm, 37 cm, or 84 cm), respectively, by 2050 across the region compared to levels in 2000 and by about 1.6 feet, 3.6 feet, or 10.2 feet (0.5 m, 1.1 m, or 3.1 m), respectively, by 2100 (Figure 20.6).³⁸ Additionally, the region may experience more than the global average increase under the higher scenarios in response to changes in the Earth’s gravitational field and rotation due to melting of land ice, ocean circulation, and vertical land motion.

Figure 20.6: Observed and Projected Sea Level Rise

Figure 20.6: (top) Observed sea level rise trends in Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands reflect an increase in sea level of about 0.08 inches (2.0 mm) per year for the period 1962–2017 for Puerto Rico and for 1975–2017 for the U.S. Virgin Islands. The bottom panels show a closer look at more recent trends from 2000 to 2017 that measure a rise in sea level of about 0.24 inches (6.0 mm) per year. Projections of sea level rise are shown under three different scenarios of Intermediate-Low (1–2 feet), Intermediate (3–4 feet), and Extreme (9–11 feet) sea level rise. The scenarios depict the range of future sea level rise based on factors such as global greenhouse gas emissions and the loss of glaciers and ice sheets. Sources: NOAA NCEI and CICS-NC.

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Key Message 1

Freshwater

Key Message 2

Marine Resources

Key Message 3

Coastal Systems

Key Message 4

Rising Temperatures

Key Message 5

Disaster Risk Response to Extreme Events

Key Message 6

Increasing Adaptive Capacity Through Regional Collaboration

TRACEABLE ACCOUNTS

Process Description

The majority of our Key Messages were developed over the course of two separate author meetings. The first occurred March 9–10, 2017, and the second on May 3, 2017. Both meetings were held in San Juan, Puerto Rico; however, people were also able to join remotely from Washington, DC, Raleigh, North Carolina, and the U.S. Virgin Islands (USVI). In addition, the author team held weekly conference calls and organized separate Key Message calls and meetings to review and draft information that was integral to our chapter. To develop the Key Messages, the team also deliberated with outside experts who are acknowledged as our technical contributors.

KEY MESSAGES

Key Message 1: Freshwater

Freshwater is critical to life throughout the Caribbean. Increasing global carbon emissions are projected to reduce average rainfall in this region by the end of the century (likely, high confidence), constraining freshwater availability, while extreme rainfall events, which can increase freshwater flooding impacts, are expected to increase in intensity (likely, medium confidence). Saltwater intrusion associated with sea level rise will reduce the quantity and quality of freshwater in coastal aquifers (very likely, high confidence). Increasing variability in rainfall events and increasing temperatures will likely alter the distribution of ecological life zones and exacerbate existing problems in water management, planning, and infrastructure capacity (likely, medium confidence).

Description of evidence base

The average global atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO₂) concentration has increased from 378 parts per million (ppm) in 2005 to over 406 ppm during April of 2017. The rate of increase over this period appears to be constant, and there is no indication that the rate will decrease in the future.¹⁴⁶ Several climate change studies have concluded that owing to increased atmospheric CO₂ and the consequent global climate change, rainfall will likely decrease in the region between now and the end of the century (e.g., Meehl et al. 2007, Biasutti et al. 2012, Campbell et al. 2011, Cashman et al. 2010²^,³^,⁴^,⁵). Neelin et al. (2006)¹⁴⁷ and Scatena (1998)¹⁴⁸ have predicted increasingly severe droughts in the region in the future. Several downscaling studies, which specifically considered Puerto Rico, predict a reduction in rainfall by the end of the century⁶^,⁷^,³⁴ and constraints on freshwater availability. Furthermore, Taylor et al. (2018)¹⁴⁹ used the most recent generation of global climate models and demonstrated that when global warming increases from 1.5°C to 2°C above the preindustrial values (1861–1900), the Caribbean experiences a shift to predominantly drier conditions. Small watersheds that feed reservoirs are typical of the Caribbean region, and they are less able to serve as a buffer for rainfall variability. Small watersheds exhibit variable drainage patterns, which in turn affect evapotranspiration, groundwater infiltration, and surface water runoff. Drainage patterns in watersheds are also affected by the specific geometry, configuration, and orientation in relation to the average direction of wind over the region, as well as the morphology of rivers. With a projected reduction in rainfall up to 30% on average for the island by the end of the century,⁷ certain watersheds will likely be less able to buffer rainfall variability and will likely see water deficits in the near future. Increasing variability in rainfall events and increasing temperatures will likely exacerbate existing problems in water management, planning, and infrastructure capacity.

Streamflow is estimated using hydrologic models that are calibrated to networks of stream gauges and precipitation measurements. Reservoirs are considered in a permanent supply deficit if the annual streamflow leaving these reservoirs falls below zero after estimating withdrawals for human consumption, evapotranspiration, and rainfall. Projections of when deficit conditions could occur (circa 2025) are estimated using climate models.⁴⁶

Saltwater intrusion associated with sea level rise will reduce the quantity and quality of freshwater in coastal aquifers. In Puerto Rico, groundwater quality can change when the water table is below sea level in coastal areas or when the intensity of pumping induces local upconing of deeper, poor-quality water.⁴³ Upconing is the process by which saline water underlying freshwater in an aquifer rises upward into the freshwater zone due to pumping.¹⁵⁰ When the water table is below sea level, the natural discharge of groundwater along the coast is reversed and can result in the inland movement of seawater or the upconing of low-quality water.¹⁵¹^,¹⁵² Diminished aquifer recharge and, to a lesser extent, increased groundwater withdrawals during 2012–2015 resulted in a reduction in the freshwater saturated thickness of the South Coast Aquifer. With sea level rise, groundwater quality will likely deteriorate even further in coastal aquifers in Puerto Rico.

Major uncertainties

As global changes continue to alter the hydrological cycle across the region, water resources are expected to be affected in both quantity and quality. There is still uncertainty as to the extent and severity of these global changes on small island nations such as Puerto Rico and the USVI, despite notable advancements in downscaled modeling exercises. Current climatological observations have presented an overall increase in mean annual precipitation across Puerto Rico.¹⁵³ However, climate model projections point toward an overall decrease in annual mean precipitation toward 2050 and an increase in rainfall intensity for extreme rainfall,⁶^,⁷^,²⁸^,³⁰^,³⁴^,¹⁵⁴ including rainfall associated with hurricanes. There is more uncertainty regarding the frequency and duration to changes in extreme rainfall within the region.⁷^,²⁸^,³⁴

Selected CMIP3 (Coupled Model Intercomparison Project, phase 3) and CMIP5 global climate models (GCMs) capture the general large-scale atmospheric circulation that controls seasonal rainfall patterns within the Caribbean¹⁵⁵ and provide justification that these GCM projections can be further downscaled to capture important rainfall characteristics associated with the islands.¹⁵⁶ Systemic dry biases exist, however, in the GCMs.¹⁵⁵ And many GCMs fail to capture the bimodal precipitation pattern in the region.²⁸ The CMIP3 generation of GCMs that do capture the bimodal rainfall pattern predict extreme drying at the middle and end of this century.⁷^,²⁸ The CMIP5 generation of GCMs also projects drying by the middle and end of the century, but the magnitude of drying is not as large. Local and island-scale processes could affect these projected changes, since the land surface interacts with and affects both precipitation and evaporation rates.¹⁵⁷

Description of confidence and likelihood

There is high confidence that freshwater availability will likely be constrained by the end of the century and medium confidence that extreme rainfall events will likely increase in intensity. There is high confidence that sea level rise will very likely cause saltwater intrusion impacts on coastal freshwater aquifers. There is medium confidence about likely changes to ecological life zones but low confidence about the distributional effects on the existing terrestrial ecosystems in the region.

Key Message 2: Marine Resources

Marine ecological systems provide key ecosystem services such as commercial and recreational fisheries and coastal protection. These systems are threatened by changes in ocean surface temperature, ocean acidification, sea level rise, and changes in the frequency and intensity of storm events. Degradation of coral and other marine habitats can result in changes in the distribution of species that use these habitats and the loss of live coral cover, sponges, and other key species (very likely, high confidence). These changes will likely disrupt valuable ecosystem services, producing subsequent effects on Caribbean island economies (likely, medium confidence).

Description of evidence base

In 2006, the National Marine Fisheries Service (NMFS) listed elkhorn and staghorn corals as threatened species under the Endangered Species Act, with persistent elevated sea surface temperatures and sea level rise being two of the key factors influencing the listing decision.¹⁵⁸ The Acropora Biological Review Team (2005) found that the number of hurricanes affecting reef ecosystems in the Caribbean has increased over the past two decades (2 hurricanes in the 1970s, 6 in the 1980s, and 12 in the 1990s). Sea surface temperature is expected to continue rising, and this implies an increasing threat to elkhorn and staghorn corals from bleaching-induced mortality and possibly an exacerbation of disease effects. In 2014, NMFS listed an additional 5 species of Atlantic/Caribbean corals (lobed, mountainous star, boulder star, pillar, and rough cactus) as threatened and reevaluated the listing of elkhorn and staghorn corals, confirming them as threatened species; it also listed 15 Indo-Pacific coral species as threatened,¹⁵⁹ with two of the key factors being ocean warming and ocean acidification. Brainard et al.¹⁵⁹ found that ocean warming and related effects of climate change have already created a clear and present threat to many corals that will likely continue into the future and can be assessed with certainty out to 2100. Increases in human population densities and activity levels in the coastal zone are expected to continue, meaning the vulnerability of these populations and infrastructure will likely continue increasing with climate change.¹⁶⁰ Direct measurements at the Bermuda Atlantic Time-series Study station shows that surface ocean acidity has increased by about 12% and aragonite saturation (Ω_arg) has decreased by about 8% over the past three decades.¹⁶¹ These values agreed with those reported across the Caribbean¹⁶² and Atlantic regions¹⁸^,¹⁶¹ using regional and global numerical marine carbonate system models.

Many coastal regions already experience low surface seawater pH and Ω_arg conditions (localized or coastal ocean acidification) due to processes other than CO₂ uptake. As a result, the effect of ocean acidification on coastal zones can be several times higher and faster than typically expected for oceanic waters.¹⁶³

Caribbean coral reefs in the Bahamas, Belize, Bonaire, and Grand Cayman are already experiencing significant reductions in carbonate production rates, with 37% of surveyed sites showing net erosion.¹⁶⁴ Friedrich et al. (2012).⁶⁶ concluded that calcification rates may have already dropped by about 15% within the Caribbean with respect to their preindustrial values.

Major uncertainties

The link between climate stressors such as increasing sea surface temperatures and bleaching response and increasing prevalence of disease in corals is postulated. There is some scientific evidence indicating a link, but it is hard to make definitive conclusions. Effects of climate change on fisheries in the Caribbean have not been as well studied as the effects on marine habitats, particularly coral reefs.⁷⁴^,¹⁶⁵ Similarly, the social consequences of climate change and associated declines in marine fisheries and the effects on coastal communities reliant on coral reef fishery species have not been as well studied.¹⁶⁶

Uncertainty with respect to ocean acidification is dominated by uncertainty about how ecosystems and organisms will respond, particularly due to multiple interactions with other stressors.

The value of the loss of ecosystem services to ocean acidification is unknown. Such losses are attributable to the degradation of ecosystems that support important economic marine species such as coral, conch, oysters, fish larvae, urchins, and pelagic fish in the Caribbean. There is strong evidence for decreasing carbonate production, calcification rates, coral cover, and biomass of major reef-building species throughout the Caribbean region. However, there is still not enough evidence to conclude that all these decreased ecosystem processes are due to ocean acidification.

There are only a few studies on ecosystem and organism responses to climate stressors (such as ocean warming) that consider ocean acidification in the Caribbean. For instance, low pH values could affect nursery areas of commercially important species such as tuna, presenting a source of vulnerability for the economy, but studies are scarce. Ocean acidification could also affect the food web dynamics at lower trophic levels and have physiological effects at larval stages that would likely cascade upward, affecting coral and fish recruitment.

The effects of ocean acidification on coral reefs, shellfish, fish, and marine mammals will likely cause an economic effect on fisheries, coastal protection, and tourism in the Caribbean. Ocean acidification can exacerbate the current global warming effects on coral reefs, and it will likely continue deteriorating reef conditions and cause ecological regime shifts from coral to algal reefs.⁷⁷^,¹⁶⁷ The primary effect on reef communities will probably be a reduction in their capacity to recover from acute events such as thermal bleaching.

Sea level rise is currently the most immediate and well-understood climate-related threat to mangroves.⁷⁰ It is not clear how mangroves will respond to elevated CO_2, and some studies suggest increases may actually be beneficial to mangroves.⁷⁰ Similarly, in the Caribbean where temperatures are already high, increasing temperatures, as well as declines in rainfall and corresponding increases in soil salinity during periods of drought, will likely increase plant water stress and reduce productivity. There have been limited studies on the effects of climate change on seagrass beds; therefore, these effects remain uncertain.⁶⁹ Sea level rise that results in reduced sunlight due to increased water depths can lead to the loss of seagrass beds from deeper waters. As discussed previously, the loss or degradation of these habitats, which are part of the coral reef ecosystem and serve as nursery habitat for important nursery species, will likely contribute to declines in fishery productivity due to climate change.

Description of confidence and likelihood

There is high confidence that increasing ocean temperatures, changes in ocean acidity, and changes in the frequency and intensity of storms are extremely likely to affect coastal and marine resources. Large storm events within the past decade have resulted in significant effects on marine resources, particularly coral habitats and organisms that rely on them. There is medium confidence in predictions that coral habitats will likely continue to decline throughout the Caribbean, with associated effects on resources dependent on these habitats; although, scientific studies are still needed in terms of climate change effects on fisheries resources, particularly for species that are found in offshore waters or are pelagic. Changes in coral habitats are already occurring as evidenced by massive coral bleaching events (including a three-year global-level bleaching event from 2015–2017) and the increase in these events. Such changes in bleaching events are due to rising sea surface temperatures. There is high confidence that there have been changes in ocean pH and medium confidence on the ecological effects. Due to the lack of studies on the social consequences of climate change and associated losses of resources such as fisheries, there is medium confidence that effects on coastal and marine resources resulting from climate change will affect island economies. These effects can be a result of changes in availability and condition of fishery resources, loss of reefs and other coral communities that serve as coastal barriers, and effects on tourism due to loss of the resources that are primary attractions for visitors.

There is medium confidence in the ecological effects that will result due to changes in ocean pH. The CO₂ system of seawater is well understood and established. As such, the understanding of the basic equilibria governing the process of ocean acidification dates back to at least 1960¹⁶⁸ and represents a foundational understanding of modern chemical oceanography. The ecological consequences of human-induced changes to the system (that is, ocean acidification) is, however, a considerably new field. Both themes were assessed considering recent findings and based on adequate observed local data (for example, atmospheric pCO₂ [carbon dioxide partial pressure] values are based on measurements of weekly air samples from St. Croix, the USVI, the United States, and Ragged Point, Barbados), complemented with empirical models. Projected changes in climate for the Caribbean islands were based on the future projections of fossil fuel emissions driven by reasonable models from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC).¹⁶⁹ Additional empirical species response data would be useful for increasing the understanding of expected effects of ocean acidification on species and habitats in the Caribbean.

Key Message 3: Coastal Systems

Coasts are a central feature of Caribbean island communities. Coastal zones dominate island economies and are home to critical infrastructure, public and private property, cultural heritage, and natural ecological systems. Sea level rise, combined with stronger wave action and higher storm surges, will worsen coastal flooding and increase coastal erosion (very likely, very high confidence), likely leading to diminished beach area (likely, high confidence), loss of storm surge barriers (likely, high confidence), decreased tourism (likely, medium confidence), and negative effects on livelihoods and well-being (likely, medium confidence). Adaptive planning and nature-based strategies, combined with active community participation and traditional knowledge, are beginning to be deployed to reduce the risks of a changing climate.

Description of evidence base

The Key Message and subsequent narrative text are based on the best available information for the U.S. Caribbean. There are not many studies on or projections for sea level rise for the U.S. Caribbean. Therefore, evidence of sea level rise used for this report comes from the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers’ (USACE) Sea Level Change Curve Calculator.⁹⁵ To calculate the Intermediate and High scenarios, the USACE uses modified National Research Council (NRC) curves, the most recent IPCC projections, and modified NRC projections with local rate of vertical land movement.⁹⁵ The four NOAA estimates integrate data ranging from tide gauge records for the lowest scenario to projected ocean warming from the IPCC’s global sea level rise projections combined with the maximum projection for glacier and ice sheet loss for 2100 for the highest scenario. The sea level rise analysis mainly focuses on data from two tide gauges chosen to be representative of the region, one in San Juan, Puerto Rico, and the other in Charlotte Amalie, USVI. There are two others in the region that provide sea level trend data located in Magueyes, Puerto Rico, and Lime Tree Bay, USVI.

Additional evidence that sea level is rising is well documented in Chapter 9: Oceans and in the Climate Science Special Report. There are also numerous empirical examples of sea level rise and its effects in Puerto Rico and the USVI, where beaches have been reduced by erosion, roads have been lost, and access to schools has been affected.

Major uncertainties

Sea level rise is already occurring. However, the uncertainty lies in how much of an increase will take place in the future and how coastal social and ecological systems will respond. There are various models and projections to estimate this number, but it is influenced by many unknown factors, such as the amount of future greenhouse gas emissions and how quickly glaciers and ice sheets melt. Another major uncertainty lies in humans’ abilities to combat or adapt to these changes. The scale at which people and cities will be affected depends on the actions taken to reduce risk. Lastly, the experience of sea level rise on each coast and community is different, depending on land subsidence or accretion, land use, and erosion; thus, the severity of effects might differ based on these factors.

Due to the levels of uncertainty surrounding the projections, we focused much attention on the highest scenarios, as fewer consequences exist for planning in terms of the higher scenario (RCP8.5).

Description of confidence and likelihood

Sea levels have already risen and will likely continue to rise in the future. Based on current levels of greenhouse gas emissions, glacial melt, and ice sheet loss, there is high confidence and likelihood in these sea level rise projections.

Key Message 4: Rising Temperatures

Natural and social systems adapt to the temperatures under which they evolve and operate. Changes to average and extreme temperatures have direct and indirect effects on organisms and strong interactions with hydrological cycles, resulting in a variety of impacts. Continued increases in average temperatures will likely lead to decreases in agricultural productivity, changes in habitats and wildlife distributions, and risks to human health, especially in vulnerable populations. As maximum and minimum temperatures increase, there are likely to be fewer cool nights and more frequent hot days, which will likely affect the quality of life in the U.S. Caribbean. (High Confidence)

Description of evidence base

In warm tropical areas like Puerto Rico and the USVI, higher summertime temperatures mean more energy is needed to cool buildings and homes, increasing the demand for energy. Heat episodes are becoming more common worldwide, including in tropical regions like the U.S. Caribbean. Higher frequency, duration, and intensity of heat episodes are triggering serious public health issues in San Juan. Heat poses a greater threat to health and well-being in high-density urban areas. Land use and land cover have affected local climate directly and indirectly, facilitating the urban heat island (UHI) effect, with potential effects on heat-related morbidity and mortality among urban populations.

Major uncertainties

Warming is evident. A remaining scientific question is how ecological and social systems that have established themselves in a particular location can adapt to higher average temperatures.¹⁷⁰ Islands such as Puerto Rico are particularly vulnerable because of heat events associated with changes in both terrestrial and marine conditions. Although there is evidence suggesting that mortality relative to risk increases in San Juan due to extreme heat,¹² this association is not completely understood on tropical islands like Puerto Rico and the USVI. Addressing such hazards can benefit from new strategies that seek to determine linkages between human health, rapid and synoptic environmental monitoring, and the research that helps improve the forecast of hazardous conditions for particular human population segments or for other organisms.

Description of confidence and likelihood

There is high confidence that increasing temperatures threaten the health and well-being of people living in the U.S. Caribbean, especially in high-density urban areas where the UHI effect places further stress on city populations.

Key Message 5: Disaster Risk Response to Extreme Events

Extreme events pose significant risks to life, property, and economy in the Caribbean, and some extreme events, such as flooding and droughts, are projected to increase in frequency and intensity (flooding as likely as not, medium confidence; droughts very likely, medium confidence). Increasing hurricane intensity and associated rainfall rates (likely, medium confidence) will likely affect human health and well-being, economic development, conservation, and agricultural productivity. Increased resilience will depend on collaboration and integrated planning, preparation, and responses across the region (high confidence).

Description of evidence base

On both Puerto Rico and the USVI, disaster events have caused billions of dollars in property and crop damages.¹⁷¹ Over the years, disaster-induced casualties have declined in both territories. Tropical cyclones, particularly hurricanes, continue to generate the most severe economic damage across the U.S. Caribbean. Floods and droughts are challenging to manage for both territories, and these challenges may be exacerbated by climate change induced shifts in precipitation regimes.

Climate modeling for tropical cyclone activity in the Atlantic Basin, including the Caribbean region, points toward an increase in the frequency of more intense hurricanes.¹³⁵ An increase in days with more than 3 inches of rain per 24-hour period is projected for Puerto Rico, based on statistically downscaled CMIP3 climate models.²⁸ Changes in precipitation patterns are expected for Puerto Rico in the periods 2030–2050 and 2100, pointing toward an overall decrease in mean precipitation for different climate change scenarios.⁷^,²⁸^,³⁰^,³⁴

While continental droughts typically affect vast regions, droughts affecting Puerto Rico and the USVI tend to vary significantly in extent and severity over smaller distances.¹³² Statistically downscaled climate projections for Puerto Rico suggest an increase of drought intensity (measured as the total annual dry days) and extremes (measured as the annual maximum number of consecutive dry days) due to an increase in mean and extreme temperatures and a decrease in precipitation.⁷

An increase in mean atmospheric temperature has been observed across the U.S. Caribbean islands, particularly on Puerto Rico. An analysis of the observed temperatures across several NOAA weather stations in Puerto Rico showed rising temperature trends between 1970 and 2016.¹⁷² Following the principles established by the international Expert Team on Climate Change Detection and Indices,¹⁷³ temperature extremes and trends were identified, indicating significant increases in rising annual temperatures and an increase in extreme heat episodes.

Major uncertainties

There are still uncertainties as to how these projected changes in tropical Atlantic cyclone activity will affect the frequency distribution of extreme precipitation events. While an increase in days with more than 3 inches of rain per 24-hour period has been projected based on statistically downscaled CMIP3 models,²⁸ more recent generations of GCMs do not show this increase in extreme rainfall events, and this adds uncertainty. Results from two dynamically downscaled climate models using the most recent generation of GCMs for the region do not show increases in the frequency of extreme events.³⁴

At present, data pertaining to the costs and effects that are associated with extreme events and disasters are very limited and not readily accessible for government officials, disaster risk managers, or the general public. In the future, more accessible data could facilitate opportunities for more thorough analyses on the economic costs of extreme events for the U.S. Caribbean.

Description of confidence and likelihood

There is high confidence that increasing frequency of extreme events threatens life, property, and economy in the region, given that the U.S. Caribbean’s vulnerable populations and fragile economies are continually exposed to climate extremes. There is medium confidence that the frequency and intensity of the most extreme hurricanes and droughts will likely increase. There is high confidence that extreme events will likely continue to affect human health and well-being, economic development and tourism, conservation, agriculture, and danger from flooding. There is high confidence that future recovery and cultural continuity will depend on significant and integrated resilience planning across the region, focusing on collaborative actions among stakeholders.

Key Message 6: Increasing Adaptive Capacity Through Regional Collaboration

Shared knowledge, collaborative research and monitoring, and sustainable institutional adaptive capacity can help support and speed up disaster recovery, reduce loss of life, enhance food security, and improve economic opportunity in the U.S. Caribbean. Increased regional cooperation and stronger partnerships in the Caribbean can expand the region’s collective ability to achieve effective actions that build climate change resilience, reduce vulnerability to extreme events, and assist in recovery efforts (very likely, high confidence)

Description of evidence base

Cross-regional and international cooperation is a mechanism that will likely reduce climate vulnerability and risks in the U.S. Caribbean, because it builds capacity and leverages resources in a region that has low adaptive capacity, due in part to the high costs of mitigation and adaptation relative to gross domestic product.¹^,¹⁷^,¹⁴⁵ There are several efforts among the islands focused on coordination, information exchange, and approaches for risk assessment and management in the Caribbean region.¹⁴²^,¹⁴³^,¹⁴⁴^,¹⁴⁵ There are emerging opportunities for improving these partnerships and capacity across the region.

Major uncertainties

There is high certainty that Caribbean island states are being affected by climate change, but the rate and degree of effects vary across countries due to the differences in environmental and socioeconomic conditions. Examples of regional cooperation efforts to share knowledge, conduct collaborative research, and develop joint projects have increased the adaptive capacity in the region; however, sustaining such efforts across the region remains a challenge. As efforts for regional coordination, cooperation, and information exchange evolve, evidence of the benefits of collaboration can be better assessed.

Description of confidence and likelihood

There is high confidence that climate change will likely result in serious water supply shortages and in increased risks for agriculture production, human health, wildlife, and the socioeconomic development of Puerto Rico, the USVI, and the wider Caribbean region. The effects of climate change in the Caribbean region are likely to increase threats to life and infrastructure from sea level rise and extreme events; reduce the availability of fresh water, particularly during the dry season; negatively affect coral reef ecosystems; and cause health problems due to high temperatures and an increase in diseases.

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Front Matter

National Topics

National Topics (cont.)

Regions

Responses

Appendices

Key Message 1Freshwater

Key Message 2Marine Resources

Key Message 3Coastal Systems

Key Message 4Rising Temperatures

Key Message 5Disaster Risk Response to Extreme Events

Key Message 6Increasing Adaptive Capacity Through Regional Collaboration

Key Message 1

Key Message 2

Key Message 3

Key Message 4

Key Message 5

Key Message 6

Likelihood

Confidence Level

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY: Chapter 20: U.S. Caribbean

Observed and Projected Sea Level Rise

Climate Risk Management Organizations

CHAPTER 20 U.S. Caribbean

Background

Authors

Contributors

Recommended Citation

Related Links

Figure 20.1: U.S. Caribbean Region

Figure 20.2: Climate Indicators and Impacts

Observed and Projected Climate Change

Figure 20.3: Observed and Projected Temperature Change for Puerto Rico

Figure 20.4: Projected Precipitation Change for Puerto Rico

Figure 20.5: Ocean Chemistry and Temperature

Figure 20.6: Observed and Projected Sea Level Rise

Freshwater

Linkage Between Climate Change and Regional Risks

Future Climate Change Relevant to Regional Risks

Figure 20.7: Projected Change in Annual Streamflow

Cloud Forests Are Vulnerable to Climate Change

Challenges, Opportunities, and Success Stories for Reducing Risk

Emerging Issues

Marine Resources

Linkage Between Climate Change and Regional Risks

Figure 20.9: Climate Change Effects on Coral Reefs

Figure 20.10: Climate Change Impacts on Coral Reef Ecosystems and Societal Implications

Future Climate Change Relevant to Regional Risks

Challenges, Opportunities, and Success Stories for Reducing Risk

Coral Farming Can Increase the Extent and Diversity of Coral Reefs

Emerging Issues

Coastal Systems

Linkage Between Climate Change and Regional Risks

The U.S. Caribbean Economy

Critical Infrastructure at Risk, San Juan Metro Area

Cultural Heritage

Critical Infrastructure, Property, and Real Estate

Challenges, Opportunities, and Success Stories for Reducing Risk

Assessing Vulnerability with Communities

Emerging Issues

Rising Temperatures

Linkage Between Climate Change and Regional Risks

Figure 20.14: Days Above 90°F in Puerto Rico

Future Climate Change Relevant to Regional Risks

Challenges, Opportunities, and Success Stories for Reducing Risk

Emerging Issues

Disaster Risk Response to Extreme Events

Hurricane Maria Damage

Figure 20.17: Maximum Extent of Drought

Future Climate Change Relevant to Regional Risks

Challenges, Opportunities, and Success Stories for Reducing Risk

Increasing Adaptive Capacity Through Regional Collaboration

Shared Risks and Opportunities

Effectiveness of Cross-Regional Collaboration for Building Resilience

Figure 20.18: Climate Risk Management Organizations

Reducing Risks and Supporting Adaptation: Gaps, Opportunities, and Benefits

TRACEABLE ACCOUNTS

Process Description

KEY MESSAGES

Key Message 1: Freshwater

Key Message 1
Freshwater

Key Message 2
Marine Resources

Key Message 3
Coastal Systems

Key Message 4
Rising Temperatures

Key Message 5
Disaster Risk Response to Extreme Events

Key Message 6
Increasing Adaptive Capacity Through Regional Collaboration

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY:
Chapter 20: U.S. Caribbean

CHAPTER 20
U.S. Caribbean